内地消费长远前景佳
Category: Asia, China, Hong Kong
交易所买卖基金（ETFs）的发展正处于自我反省的时期，监管当局担心这些工具对金融体系的潜在风险，并因此提出更严格的管制。在香港，新规则今年已经公布，将提高对以交易所上市合成型ETF抵押的管制；主要的担心是涉及衍生工具的使用问题，而衍生工具正是监管当局不放心的范围。香港监管当局今年并没有批准任何合成型结构的ETF上市。
自从于1993年在美国推出第一只ETF以来（香港在1999年发行首只ETF），全球ETF市场出现爆炸性增长。今天，投资者可以利用ETF投资几乎全球任何一个市场及行业。然而，以供应及购买层面而言，亚洲个人投资者尚未见到有大规模的的参与，区内投资ETF仍以机构投资者为主。
这种情况应该可以改变，正如今期杂志数篇文章所指出，ETF为个人投资者提供不少投资优势。最终而言，对任何新兴投资事物来说，投资者教育是一项关键因素，亦是必须由所有有关各方进行的持续工作。
不仅限于内地股市，亚洲其他地区的股票投资者亦肯定感到失望。展望即将来临的龙年，投资者希望是一个好的年头。目前，投资者期望连续两年表现不振的中国A股在2012年下半年会出现好转。
中国观察家和投资者的其中一个经常话题，是对内地消费市场长线前景乐观。部份分析意见注意到，内地中产阶层对本地生产的货品和医药“信心不足”，已经为外国货打开了大门。据估计，内地中产阶层消费者至少达3亿人，这对几乎所有商品和服务均是巨大的潜在购买力。
陈利福
出版人
The world of exchange traded funds (ETFs) is currently going through a period of soul searching. Regulators are worried about the potential risks that these vehicles pose to the financial system and hence have moved to put in place tighter controls. In Hong Kong, new rules have been published this year, raising the bar on the use of collateral for synthetic ETFs listed on the exchange. The main worry concerns the use of derivatives, an area that regulators are not comfortable with. Hong Kong regulators have not approved any new ETF listings with a synthetic structure this year.
Ever since the first ETF was launched in 1993 in the United States (Hong Kong saw its first ETF in 1999), the global ETF market has exploded; today, investors can access virtually any market or sector globally using these vehicles. However, the supply and ease of buying into ETFs has yet to be translated into any meaningful participation at the retail level in Asia. ETFs remain largely an institutional play in the region.
This should and can change as ETFs offer numerous advantages to the retail investor as highlighted in the various articles in this month’s issue. At the end of the day, investor education is a key element and as with any relatively new industry, this is a continuing exercise that has to be undertaken by all concerned.
Looking ahead into the Year of the Dragon, investors are hopeful of a better year. Equity investors have certainly been disappointed not just on the Mainland but elsewhere in the region; investors are now hoping that after two consecutive years of poor performance in China’s A shares, the market is primed for a turnaround later in the second half of 2012.
One constant theme that China watchers and investors are bullish about over the long-term is the opportunity set in the consumer sector; some commentators have noted the “trust deficit” that middle class Chinese consumers have for locally produced goods and medicine, for example; this has opened the door for foreign made goods. There are at least 300 million middle class consumers based on some estimates and they represent a huge potential for virtually all manner of goods and services.
Tan Lee Hock
Publisher